2027 and realignment of forces
As from June, attention may shift to the 2027 calculations by political actors in a country that, traditionally, cannot set a line of demarcation or boundary, no matter how thin, between politics and governance.
The ruling party is not sleeping on guard. Its leaders are working assiduously to enlarge its coast by wooing opposition figures, particularly in the state and national parliament where some PDP and LP lawmakers have defected, citing the multiple crises in the opposition camps as justification.
There is a sort of miniature threat posed by some aggrieved and grumbling APC chieftains, who have tentatively lost out in the distribution of largesse by the Tinubu government, to the platform. The plot to decimate the ruling party has manifested in the defection of a foundation stalwart, Mallam Nasir El-Rufai, former governor of Kaduna State, to the SDP.
El-Rufai has ambition, like all politicians. Ahead of 2023 polls, he had his eyes on the Vice Presidency. Smart, clever, confident and fork-tongued, he started shifting loyalty. As a Muslim, he positioned himself as likely running mate to Christian presidential aspirants -Rotimi Amaechi, former governor of Rivers State, and his Ekiti State counterpart, Dr. Kayode Fayemi. He had fired salvos at Tinubu, describing him as a godfather who should be retired. He only shifted allegiance to the leading APC presidential candidate when he knew that he had overcome the odds.
But, El-Rufai’s bid for the number two position collapsed. While avoiding a Muslim/Muslim ticket, President Tinubu settled for the hard, but objective option and survived the hues and cries. The former Kaduna State governor lost out when Senator Kashim Shetimma was picked as running mate.
Since his name was also dropped from the ministerial list after attending screening at the Senate, El-Rufai has been predictably bitter. He said the distance between him and APC was widening.
At the recent national conference on strengthening democracy, he attacked the Tinubu administration, describing the current state of governance and opposition in the country as a “national emergency.”
He alleged lack of internal democracy within the APC, declaring that “mo party organ has met in two years—no caucus, no NEC, nothing. You don’t even know if it is a one-man show; it’s a zero-man show.” El-Rufai added: “You cannot afford to have illiterates, semi-illiterates, and cunning people as your leaders. This is why we end up with the poor leadership we have today. The problems that led to the formation of the APC remained unresolved, but I no longer believe the APC is interested in addressing them.”
Setting a stage for jumping ship, he alleged personal and regional exclusion, threatening that the North, which, in his view,retains the numerical voting strength, would not endorse President Tinubu and APC at the poll.
Prominent northerners, both in the APC and outside the party, disagreed with his assertion, saying that he merely expressed a personal opinion.
The APC National Chairman, Dr. Abdullahi Ganduje, former governor of Kano State, said his personal portrayal of collective northern perception and permutations paled into a figment of hyperactive imagination. “The North will not abandon President Tinubu and APC,” he added.
El-Rufai is the first prominent defector from the party. While announcing his departure, he unfolded plans to rally the opposition to hijack power from the APC during the 2027 elections. The former Minister of Federal Capital Territory (FCT) whipped up sentiments, posing as a rallying point and champion of public interest.
“I have now decided to join the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and adopt it as the platform for our future political engagements and activities.
“Without prejudice to this decision, as a member of the SDP, I will focus on engaging with and persuading other opposition leaders and parties to join us and congregate under a unified democratic platform to challenge the APC in all elections and by-elections between now and 2027 by the grace of God,” he said.
But, the National Secretary, Senator Ajibola Basiru, ruled out an imminent implosion in the ruling party, saying that APC will continue to wax stronger, in Kaduna and other states.
Also, the Presidency dismissed the defection as a reaction to defeat. Spokesman David Bwala ponted out that it has no ideological underpinning, stressing that it is in exercise of constitutional right for the defense of self-interest.
But, he predicted failure for the defector, saying: “We would intellectually remind you that associating with sore losers to unseat the incumbent is not an ideology. Neither is it progressivism. It is simply an inordinate ambition that is destined to fail.”
According to observers, El-Rufai may be deficient in accurate self-assessment. His structure, which has been shrinking after leaving power, has further been decimated by his decision to quit APC. Many of his followers who have stakes in the party are not likely to follow him.
Besides, he is labelled as a serial defector, who has crisis-crossed four parties – PDP, Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), APC and SDP – in his bid for power and relevance.
Apart from his loss of relevance in national politics, Kaduna, his base, is also hot for El-Rufai. A predecessor-successor crisis broke out, shortly after he handed over to Governor Uba Sani, who is popular because of his inclusive style of administration.
Also, those he fought and chased out of the party in Kaduna State, including Senator Suleiman Hukunyi whose house he demolished, Senator Shehu Sani whose renomination he blocked, and Danjuma La’ah, have all returned to the APC to team up with the governor against him. Also, his rival, former PDP Governor Ramalan Yero is now in APC.
Currently, officials who served under El-Rufai as governor are facing allegation of embezzling N423 billion, which the House of Assembly is investigating. Others are being grilled by the Independent Corrupt Practices and other Related Matters Commission (ICPC).
Kaduna APC Secretary, Yahaya Baba-Pate, said the chapter is unperturbed by El-Rufai’s defection. He said the former governor bade farewell to APC at a time high-profile politicians in the state are leaving their parties for the ruling party.
Pate stressed: “We are unperturbed by former Governor Nasir El-Rufai’s defection to another party.
Our main focus in Kaduna is on how to deliver the state to both President Bola Tinubu and Governor Uba Sani in 2027. The APC in Kaduna State is growing day by day, judging from the calibre of politicians streaming into the party on a daily basis.
“So, we are not disturbed by anybody defecting to another party based on our governor’s inclusive governance in the state. We are not disturbed, and we are not going to lose our sleep over El-rufai’s moves. The party in the state is growing more than before.”
Echoing the party secretary, another party chieftain, Mohammed Aliyu, said: “El-Rufai has no support base in Kaduna. The few people that are supporting him, are either his appointees when he was governor or those who benefit from contracts by his government. So, his defection to the SDP, as far as I am concerned, is of no effect to the APC.”
Some of El-Rufai’s potential collaborators have also faulted the timing of the defection. It underscored the lack of adequate consultation, proper brainstorming, synergy and agreement. For example, Salihu Lukman, former Northwest APC Vice Chairman, said although he anticipated the move, El-Rufai should have exercised more patience to allow coalition talks to be finalised.
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